San Juan Capistrano Real Estate Market Brief - November 2024: A Detailed Analysis

This document summarizes the key findings of the November 2024 San Juan Capistrano Real Estate Market Brief, focusing on the Opportunity Tier segment where a subject property is situated.

Key Takeaways:

• San Juan Capistrano's real estate market is segmented into four price quartiles, each exhibiting distinct characteristics and performance metrics.
• The Opportunity Tier, the lowest price band ($1.3M average), is the most active segment, demonstrating strong liquidity and potential for appreciation.
• The market is currently in a segment-specific optimization phase, indicating stability and mature market dynamics.

Market Segmentation & Performance:

The market is divided into four price bands:

1. Upper Price Band ($5.7M+): Mature market with steady transactions, featuring large homes (6,087 sq ft average) on half-acre lots with resort-style amenities. Market Activity Index (MAI): 40.48
2. Mid-Upper Price Band ($3.7M): Market leader since late 2023, characterized by 4,000 sq ft homes on quarter-acre lots. Exhibits a fast sales pace (42 days) and a 17.5% price adjustment rate. MAI: 57.57
3. Low-Mid Price Band ($2.6M): Consistent performer with steady transaction volume, featuring 3,395 sq ft homes in premium quarter-acre settings. MAI: 56.16
4. Opportunity Tier ($1.3M): Most active segment with strong liquidity and a 77-day average market time. Homes average 1,803 sq ft on 4,500-6,500 sq ft lots. MAI: 66.50

Subject Property Analysis:

• A recently sold property (November 8, 2024) in the Opportunity Tier exemplifies the segment's strong performance:
• Sold for $1,349,000 (2,098 sq ft) after just 13 days on the market, significantly faster than the 77-day average.
• Achieved a strong price per sq ft of $643.

Community Analysis (surrounding subject property):

• Demographics:
• Median Age: 39
• Median Household Income: $135,166
• College Graduates: 33.9%
• Renters: 29%
• Commercial Property Ratio: 41.5%
• Housing Market Metrics:
• Price Range: $534K - $9.3M
• Average Home Value: $1,455,179
• Average House Size: 2,120 sq ft
• Median Lot Size: 6,969 sq ft
• Active Listings: 37 homes
• Overall Market Activity Index: 40

Market Trends & Evolution:

• Current Dynamics:
• Inventory: 44 homes (exclusive selection)
• Premium Price per Sq Ft: $815
• Median Rental Rate: $8,250
• Relisting Rate: 16%
• Historical Progression:
• 2020-2022: Steady appreciation across all segments
• Mid-2022: Peak of the luxury market ($8M)
• 2023: Market equilibrium phase
• 2024: Segment-specific optimization

Future Outlook:

• San Juan Capistrano remains a desirable Orange County market with mature dynamics, reflected in strategic pricing and steady absorption rates.
• The Opportunity Tier is anticipated to maintain its strong performance, driven by:
• Strong performance metrics
• Historical trends suggesting continued stability and potential for appreciation.

Conclusion:

The analysis positions the subject property as a well-positioned asset in a stable, desirable market with strong fundamentals supporting long-term value preservation and growth. The Opportunity Tier presents a compelling investment opportunity within the San Juan Capistrano market.